Richard Frank Paez

Prepared for Dr. Carpenter

Spring 2005

SPC3605

University of Florida

1. Introduction

An American President's inaugural speech sets the course of his four year term as figurehead and Commander in Chief of the United States. Historically, the President uses his inaugural speech to thank the previous President, to quell the rivalry of the pre-election campaign process, and to address both America citizens and foreign countries regarding his plans for his tenure. Beginning with President Harry Truman's inaugural in 1949, all Presidential inaugural speeches have been televised. What was once an event directly witnessed by a physically-present minority and indirectly experienced by the radio-owning and newspaper-reading majority has become an event simultaneously experienced, both visually and audibly, by millions—not only vastly increasing the size of the American audience but also expanding the geo-national size of the audience by including television watchers world-wide. In this research paper I will perform a quantitative analysis of first- and single-term Presidential inaugural speeches(1) since President Truman's inaugural to determine what statistical similarities and differences exist between American Presidential inaugural addresses since the advent of television.

1a. Purposes

The first goal of this research paper is to analyze and discuss the rhetorical techniques used in each of the ten first-term Presidential inaugural address that have been delivered since the advent of televised inaugurations. The speeches are analyzed to determine the frequency of use of each of the twenty-one rhetorical devices defined for this research (see Section 1b: Definitions, and Figure 1: Definition of Rhetorical Techniques). Each speech is then assigned twenty-one relative-frequency scores, each corresponding to one of the twenty-one techniques, based on the number of uses divided by one-fiftieth of the word-count of the speech. Each relative score indicates the likelihood of use for a technique within a span of fifty words, thus allowing for comparison both within and between the speeches despite the differences in word-length across the speeches.

The second goal of this research paper is to determine if there is a specific rhetorical style associated with first-term presidential inaugural speeches, or a statistically identifiable group of rhetorical techniques used by the writers of presidential inaugural speeches. Statistical z-scores for each President's first inaugural address are determined using the average relative-frequency scores for all ten inaugural speeches, which are then used to compare each President's inaugural rhetorical style to the base-line style determined by all ten inaugurals. In this manner, each President’s tendency to use a particular technique can be compared to the average, allowing for a discussion of one or more possible inaugural styles. Two additional population groups are defined for between-group comparison: political party affiliates (Republicans compared to Democrats) and age-groupings (those Presidents one standard deviation or younger than the median age, those within one standard deviation of the median age, and those one standard deviation or older) are compared.

This research paper will determine if there is a quantitatively-definable rhetorical style for inaugural speeches, and if that style is determined by the nature of the speech, by the political orientation of the speaker, or by the relative age of the speaker. To begin the analysis, twenty-one techniques or elements of rhetorical style are defined for the purpose of determining the relative uses within and between each of the inaugural speeches.

1b. Definitions

For this research paper, six groups of rhetorical techniques are defined: those of arrangement, repetition, antithesis, sound, diction, and comparison (see Figure 1: Definition of Rhetorical Techniques). Techniques of arrangement include deviations from the normal or idiomatic word order, where the speaker arranges words in a manner that increases their grammatical or rhetorical weight. By composing his sentence in such a way that deviates from the audience’s expectations, the speaker achieves both a sense of novelty and, in many cases, a from of brevity (brevitas) in that the arrangement of his words conveys as much meaning as the words themselves. For the purposes of this research, seven techniques of arrangement are considered. Anastrophe is a change from the standard word order, done either to add the ethical appeal of allusion (such as mimicking the patterns of the Christian Bible, for example) or to place the most important word in the sentence in the most syntactically prominent position. Klimax is any series of parallel elements where each successive element has increased rhetorical impact or pathos. Periodos is a series of parallel constructions that come before the subject or predicate that they modify, delaying the main clause of the sentence (evoking a sort of catharsis from the listeners once the main clause is reached). A Tricolon is a series of three equal and parallel phrases or clauses which appear in sequence. Asyndeton is the omission of all conjunctions in a series, which enforces the parallelism of the construction as a whole, while Polysyndeton is the inclusion of all (normally elliptical) conjunctions in a series, which adds a sense of multiplicity and increased magnitude to the series. The last of the techniques of arrangement is Parallelism, which for the purposes of this research paper is any series of parallel elements which does not fall into the strict definitions of techniques of arrangement or of repetition.

Techniques of repetition include all lexical and syntactic repetitions which serve to increase the speaker's appearance of focus and diligence and to increase the likelihood that his words and his meanings will be remembered by his audience. Five techniques of repetition are defined for this research. Gradatio is the repetition of the last word of a clause at the beginning of the successive, parallel clause, which forms a chained series of clauses. Anaphora is a series of sentences or clauses with like beginnings, Epistrophe a series with like endings, and Complexio a series of constructions with both like beginnings and like endings. For the purpose of this research paper, a series is considered an Anaphora, Epistrophe, or Complexio only if the elements form a complex grammatical structure (a phrase or clause, not simply a noun or a verb with a modifier), or display a noticeable deviation from idiomatic grammar. All other cases of repetitive structures, whether a repeated single word or a repeated simple structure, are considered Traductio, standard repetition.

Techniques of antithesis include lexical or syntactical oppositions, where words or structures with opposing meanings are paired together. Standard Antithesis includes any instance where words with opposite meanings closely related, while Oxymoron includes paired words (adjective-noun, adverb-verb, adverb-adjective, etc.) with opposite meanings (such as "jumbo shrimp" or "losing gloriously"). When opposites are compared in two parallel phrases or clauses where words are repeated but grammatically reversed (such as Kennedy's famous "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country), the construction is known as an AB/BA Antithesis. In all three cases, instances of antithesis draw a great deal of attention from audiences due to their unexpected constructions, meanings, and brevity. Antithetical statements are both novel and easy to remember, making them potent tools of rhetorical discourse.

This research only focuses on one technique of sound, Alliteration, and one technique of diction, Archaic Language. Speeches, unlike poetry, are rarely read and quickly heard, forcing the speechwriters to choose and develop techniques that will impact deeply but distract minimally. Audiences listening to political speeches do not have the time or luxury to linger on words or their associations, which makes complex allusions, fine distinctions between alliteration, assonance, and rhyme, and the other techniques and methods of poetry too acute for speechwriting rhetorical analysis. Thus, for the purposes of this research, the term alliteration is used to indicate any arrangement of words in close proximity that share similarities of sound, regardless if those similarities include beginning-sounds (alliteration), intermediate-sounds (assonance or consonance), or ending-sounds (any of the varieties of rhyme). Similarly, the only variation of purely lexical elements considered in this research is archaic language, the use of words or phrases which have fallen out of modern usage but are recognizable as historically significant and rhetorically effective because of their historical weight (i.e., biblical language).

The final group of rhetorical techniques considered in this research is that of the comparative tropes: Metaphor and its subclasses, Synecdoche and Metonymy, and Simile. Metaphor is any semantic construct that directly equates one thing to another thing without making use of the comparative adverbial conjunctions "like" and "as." While metaphors in discourse may take many forms, each with relative qualities, for the purposes of this analysis any comparative construct that equates one object or event with another for the purpose of brevity or impact is considered a use of metaphor, except in cases of Synecdoche, where a part of the object is named to represent the whole (such as "wheels" for "car") or Metonymy, where a concrete entity stands in for an abstract concept (such as "Washington" for "Government"). Unlike the direct comparison of metaphor, the indirect comparison of smile always makes use of one of the comparative adverbial conjunctions "like" or "as." While similes are generally considered not as rhetorically effective as metaphors, similes do provide speechwriters the opportunity to make comparisons between two things while avoiding the potential confusion that could arise if the comparison is one that may be taken literally.

Many of the rhetorical techniques defined above overlap or parallel in the inaugural speeches analyzed in this research paper. As much as possible, the following caveats have been followed in the analysis of the following speeches. First, parallelism is counted only when the construction in question does not meet the strict definitions of one of the other techniques (i.e., constructions featuring Anaphora are always parallel, but few Parallelisms constitute Anaphora). Second, a metaphor is only counted once--if a speech repeatedly compares an entity to another entity (i.e., an extended metaphor), it is considered only one instance of metaphor. Third, the twin traditions of American inaugural speeches--namely starting the speech by thanking the previous administration and addressing the citizenry and ending the speech by invoking God--are not considered rhetorical techniques in of themselves unless the speaker makes use of one of the twenty-one rhetorical techniques defined above. Finally, frequency of technique use is counted only quantitatively, not qualitatively--it is outside the boundaries of the statistical focus of this research to consider the effectiveness of a technique as used by the speaker, or the potential misuse of any rhetorical technique.

2. Methods and Statistics: Within- and Between-Speeches

The method of measurement used in this research paper involved reading each speech and counting how often the speaker made use of each of the rhetorical techniques defined previously. Once the numbers for each speech were totaled, each total was divided by one-fiftieth of the word-count of that speech, resulting in a relative frequency-of-use score for each technique in that speech. Tables 1a and 1b, Frequency of Use, show the word-count for each Presidential Inaugural Speech, the actual frequency-of-use total, and the relative-frequency score for each technique. Speakers with a higher relative score for a technique tend to use that technique more often than those with lower scores.

Table 2, Statistical Analysis of Technique, shows each President's frequency-of-use score for each technique as well as the averages (statistical means) and standard deviations for each technique across all ten speeches. Techniques with higher relative-frequency averages are used more often than those with lower averages. Techniques with higher standard deviations are used less consistently by presidents (meaning that some presidents tend to use the technique much more than others), while those with lower standard deviations are used more consistently. Only those techniques with both high averages (indicating that they were used frequently by all Presidents) and low standard deviations (indicating that they were used consistently by all Presidents) should be considered indicative of a general or universal inaugural speech style.

Table 3, President Z-Scores, shows each President's z-score for each technique. A President's Z-score for a technique indicates how many standard deviations (within a hundredth of a deviation) away from the mean established from all ten inaugural addresses that President's frequency of use is for that technique. In other words, the closer a President's score is to zero, the closer to the baseline established by all of the inaugural speeches as a whole that president is. A positive z-score is indicative of a technique that is used more than the average established by the baseline, while a negative z-score is indicative of a technique used less than the average. A technique where most z-scores fall close to 0 is a technique used consistently by all speakers.

Table 4, Relative Score Summation & z-score, compares the sum of each President's relative frequency-of-use scores as a raw measure of total stylistic variation. The higher the sum, the more total stylistic variations used by that President in his speech. Z-scores are calculated for each President's total relative score, which allow us to define three rhetorical styles: inaugural speeches which display a low number of stylistic variations (z-score of -1.00 or lower), those with a high number of stylistic variations (z-score +1.00 or higher), and those which fall in the middle range (z-score within +/-1.00 of the mean).

3. Within- and Between Speech Analysis

This section is dedicated to analyzing each President's first inaugural address individually. Relative frequency-of-use scores are used to define the President's style within the speech, while the z-scores based on the standard deviations of techniques across all speeches are used to compare the President's speech to the baseline. The data for each President's inaugural address is taken from tables 1a, 1b, 2, and 3. Comparison of a President's total variation from the mean established by all ten speeches is shown on table 4.

3a. George W. Bush

In his inaugural address, President George W. Bush uses antithesis and alliteration as his primary deviations from the common idiom, with occasional recourses to anaphora and traductio. Inaugural speeches reflect an average relative score of 29.67 for antitheses (standard deviation of 16.43, with a range of 49.51), while President Bush has a relative score of nearly double the average, 53.83, earning him the highest positive z-score on antithesis (+1.47). He uses nearly four times the average number of alliterative sequences, scoring an 88.66 compared to the average 23.05. President Bush' z-score for alliteration is +2.56, placing him over two-and-a-half standard deviations right of the mean. President Bush's use of traductio and anaphora both score the highest positive z-scores compared to all other Presidents. Interestingly, President Bush is the only President to use a Gradatio in his inaugural.

3b. William J. Clinton

Like his successor, President Clinton makes most frequent use of antithesis and alliteration; however, Mr. Clinton uses a more varied style overall, invoking periodos, tricolon, asyndeton, and metaphor in addition to making frequent use of anaphora and traductio. However, except for antithesis (relative score 47.35, z-score +1.08) and alliteration (relative score 41.04, z-score +0.70), only his use of metonymy is outside the norm, with a z-score of +2.29. Metaphor appears frequently in Mr. Clinton's inaugural (z-score +1.33), second only to his idol, President Kennedy (metaphor z-score of +1.82).

3c. George Bush

President George Bush's signatures are simile (relative score of 10.79, 2.31 standard deviations more often than the average 2.07 per speech) and complexio (relative score of 6.47, 2.01 standard deviations more often than the average 1.66). Unlike his successors, George Bush does not rely on antithesis or alliteration often; in fact, his inaugural has negative z-scores for both techniques (-1.54, the lowest score of all Presidents, for antithesis, and -0.39 for alliteration). Instead, Mr. Bush turns to more unusual techniques, including klimax (z-score of +1.68, the highest of all Presidents) and oxymoron (z-score of +1.23, second only to Kennedy's), to achieve emphasis through style.

3d. Ronald Reagan

Out of all ten Presidential inaugurals considered in this research paper, that of Ronald Reagan, the "Great Communicator," shows the least stylistic variations from the common idiom. The third highest ratings for use of traductio (z-score of +0.78) and of AB/BA antithesis (z-score of +0.33) are the only statistically noticeable stylistic variations in President Reagan's style. At 1.38 standard deviations below baseline, even Mr. Reagan's use of parallelism, the most basic and most frequently used technique, is significantly below average compared to his peers (relative score 28.76, average relative score 73.72, standard deviation 32.47). This implies that President Reagan's style as evidenced in his inaugural speech may be too different from the baseline to be considered as a contributor to a statistically-defined inaugural speech style.

3e. Jimmy Carter

President Jimmy Carter's style appears, at first glance, very similar to President Reagan's. However, President Cater does make frequent use of several techniques that creates emphasis through style, including polysyndeton (z-score of +0.84, second only to President Kennedy) and epistrophe (z-score of +1.25, second only to President Nixon). Similar to Reagan's, however, is President Carter's avoidance of parallelism (z-score -1.14). President Carter also avoids anaphora (z-score -1.35, lowest of all Presidents) and is the only President who failed to use a single comparative technique. Of all the comparative tropes, the one most noticeably missing from President Carter's style is metaphor (z-score of -1.77). Of all ten Presidents, President Carter has the lowest number of positive z-scores, with only three techniques being used more often than the mean.

3f. Richard M. Nixon

President Nixon uses many rhetorical techniques often, reflected by his high z-scores for many of the twenty-one stylistic techniques. President Nixon's ranks highest out of all Presidents in his use of asyndeton (z-score +2.56, nearly two entire deviations higher than the next most frequent user, Kennedy, at +0.57) and epistrophe (z-score +1.61). Compared to the other inaugural speakers, he also relies on anaphora (z-score +1.03) and complexio (z-score +1.28), for both of which he is the second most frequent user. Nixon is also the third most frequent user of metaphor, although President Clinton outranks Nixon by over a whole standard deviation and President Kennedy outranks him by over one-and-a-half standard deviations.

3g. Lyndon B. Johnson

While President Johnson's style varies noticeable from that of Presidents Reagan and Carter in technique, it is similar in its generally low z-scores. President Johnson makes the second most frequent use of polysyndeton (z-score +1.28, second only to Kennedy) and of simile (z-score +1.23, second only to Bush), and third most frequent use of periodos (z-score +0.70) and of parallelism (+0.62). President Johnson scores negative z-scores in the use of all seventeen other techniques, including the lowest score in alliteration (-0.64). Only President Jimmy Carter has less positive z-scores.

3h. John F. Kennedy

In eight of the twenty-one stylistic techniques considered in this research, President John Kennedy sets the highest z-score benchmarks. President Kennedy is the only speaker to use archaic language (relative score 11.00, z-score +2.85). Of his other signature techniques, those which score two or more standard deviations over the mean include oxymoron (z-score +2.41), AB/BA antithesis (z-score +2.52), and anastrophe (s-score +2.71), and those which score over one and one-half standard deviations include metaphor (z-score +1.82), tricolon (z-score +1.50), parallelism (+1.57), and periodos (+1.76). President Kennedy also has the second highest z-scores in asyndeton (z-score +0.57), antithesis (z-score +1.09), and synecdoche (z-score +1.22). This indicates that Kennedy not only makes use of stylistic devices frequently, but also varies his usage considerably.

3i. Dwight D. Eisenhower

Like President Kennedy, President Eisenhower makes frequent use of the techniques of arrangement, with z-scores second only to Kennedy in anastrophe (z-score +0.42), parallelism (z-score +1.24) and tricolon (z-score +1.44). Compared to his peers, President Eisenhower makes the most frequent use of polysyndeton (z-score +1.31) and of synecdoche (z-score +2.01). However, President Eisenhower does not show high z-scores across as wide a range in techniques as President Kennedy does.

3j. Harry S. Truman

President Harry Truman's stylistic deviations appear almost entirely in his use of klimax (z-score +1.73, the most frequent use of across all ten speeches) and anaphora (z-score +0.82, the third most frequent use). Like Presidents Reagan and Carter, President Truman has a very low incidence of parallelism in his inaugural, with a z-score of -1.05. Also like Presidents Reagan and Carter, President Truman's z-scores tend towards negative numbers, indicating that he does not make as much use of stylistic devices or variations as would be indicated by the mean across the ten speeches.

4. Discussion of Within- and Between Speech Analysis

There seems to be a great deal of stylistic variation across the ten first-term inaugural speeches given by American Presidents since the advent of television. However, several techniques are used consistently. Parallelism, the arrangement of grammatically similar elements in series, is the most prevalent technique within and across all ten speeches: the average inaugural reflects a mean relative score of 73.72 (standard deviation 32.47), indicating that for every fifty words in a speech, there will be nearly 37 sets of parallel elements. If the mean and standard deviation for parallelism are recalculated without including the scores for Presidents Reagan, Carter, and Truman (all with parallelism z-scores of less than -1.0, the lowest z-scores in general), the mean results in 90.32 and the standard deviation in 22.35, revealing a very large rate of parallelism in the more stylistically complex inaugural speeches.

The next highest relative-score means belong to antithesis (29.67) and alliteration (23.05). However, both antithesis and alliteration have high standard deviations (16.43 and 25.63, respectively), which sheds a questionable light on their roles as possible elements of an inaugural speech style. In the case of antithesis, avoidance of the technique by Presidents George Bush (relative score 4.32) and Harry Truman (relative score 15.40) skews its reliability as an inaugural speech technique. The same is true of alliteration, but for the opposite reason—very frequent use by a few Presidents (most notably George W. Bush, with a relative score of 88.66) has forced both the mean and standard deviation upwards.

The use of anaphora displays a noticeable trend—it is not only used by all presidents, but its high mean (11.10) and relatively low standard deviation (5.21) indicate a consistent use by inaugural speakers. A similar trend exists for traductio, with a mean of 10.64 and a standard deviation of only 4.77. Metaphor is used consistently by all Presidents except Jimmy Carter. The mean and standard deviation for metaphor are 10.82 and 6.12 respectively; however, if recalculated without President Carter's contribution, the mean results in 12.03 and the standard deviation in 5.09—a significant difference.

Two techniques were found to be used by only one speaker each. Archaic language is used only by Kennedy, and thus must be ruled out as a contributor to an inaugural speech style. Similarly, gradatio is used only by President George W. Bush, and then only once, and must likewise be ruled out. Thus, neither technique will be further discussed in this research paper.

Statistically, there are three groups of speakers within the ten measured for this research. Summing and comparing each speaker's relative frequency scores for all techniques results in a mean total relative frequency score of 200.47, with a standard deviation of 79.97 (see table 4). Three speakers fall below one standard deviation of the total relative frequency score mean (Presidents Reagan, Carter, and Truman) and two speakers fall above one standard deviation (Presidents Kennedy and George W. Bush). The remaining five Presidents fall within one standard deviation of the mean. Thus it is possible to define three inaugural styles: the low style of Presidents Reagan, Carter, and Truman, the middle style of Presidents George Bush, Johnson, Nixon, Eisenhower, and Clinton, and the high style of Presidents George W. Bush and Kennedy.

High Style

When the data for Presidents Kennedy and George W. Bush are compared, an extremely high rate of parallelism (mean 100.32, standard deviation 34.39) is evident. Even more reliably used techniques are antithesis (mean 50.74, standard deviation 4.73) and polysyndeton (mean 6.83, standard deviation 0.71). Other signature elements of the high style are periodos, tricolon, asyndeton, anaphora, traductio, and metaphor.

Middle Style

The middle style of Presidents George Bush, Johnson, Nixon, Eisenhower, and Clinton is in many ways similar to the high style described above, with two notable exceptions: none of the rhetorical techniques are used as often or as reliably, and asyndeton, polysyndeton, and tricolon are not consistently used at all. Antithesis is still used regularly, but not as consistently (mean 26.57, standard deviation 16.05). The same holds true of metaphor (mean 11.57, standard deviation 4.67), anaphora (mean 11.82, standard deviation 4.27), and traductio (mean 9.31, standard deviation 4.86).

Low Style

The low style of Presidents Reagan, Carter, and Truman, as discussed above, returns the lowest incidence of parallelism, but relatively consistent incidences of alliteration and traductio. It could be said that, compared to the high and middle styles, the low style is defined as an attempt to compensate for low parallelism (mean 34.99, standard deviation 5.60) with traductio (mean 11.17, standard deviation 3.12) and, depending on the speaker, alliteration (mean 19.26, standard deviation 15.05).

5. Methods and Statistics: Group Analysis

This research has statistically identified three inaugural speech styles: low, middle, and high. However, two additional qualitative population groupings exist within the sample group of Presidents: grouping by political affiliation (Republicans compared to Democrats) and grouping by relative age. In the following section the rhetorical style of the Presidents will be analyzed in a manner similar to how they were analyzed in the first half of this research paper, except that in this case we will separate speeches into groups, first by the speaker's political affiliation and then by the speaker's relative age (i.e., those that fall below, within, or above one standard deviation from the mean age).

6. Discussion of Between-Speech Analysis

The discussion on rhetorical style based on political affiliation refers to tables 5a and 5b. The data for the discussion of rhetorical style based on age is found in tables 6, 6a, 6b, and 6c. Charts 1 through 5 compare all five groups (Republican, Democrat, Age -1s, Age within 1s, and age +1s) by their z-scores. The z-score data for these charts was calculated by comparing the group's average relative frequency score for a technique to the overall mean for the technique based on all ten speeches as a whole. Tables 7a and 7b show the calculations for the group z-scores.

6b. Inaugural Speeches by Political Allegiance

Five of the Presidents considered for this research were Republicans and five were Democrats. Table 5a and 5b display a comparison of techniques used by Republican and Democratic speakers, respectively. Noticeable trends include Democrats' tendency to use antithesis more often and more reliably than Republicans (Democratic mean 32.28, standard deviation 14.33; compared to Republican mean of 26.05, standard deviation 19.23). Democrats seem to use metaphor more often (mean 11.96 compared to Republican mean of 9.69), but in actuality do so much less reliably (standard deviation 8.75 compared to standard deviation 2.16). Similarly, Republicans make use of traductio more often than Democrats (mean 11.49 compared to 9.79), but not quite as reliably (standard deviation of 5.95 compared to Democrat standard deviation of 3.73). Republicans use parallelism more often and more reliably (mean 75.87 compared to 71.58; standard deviation 30.88 compared to Democrat standard deviation 37.51). Both Republicans and Democrats use anaphora to a similar extent and level of reliability.

Compared to the means established by all ten speeches, there are several specific similarities and differences in technique usage between Republicans and Democrats. Of the seven techniques of arrangement, periodos shows the only significant difference in z-scores, with Democrats scoring +0.5 and Republicans -0.5. In all other techniques of arrangement, political affiliation shows less than eighteen-hundredths of a standard deviation difference in either direction. A similar trend exists regarding the techniques of antithesis, sound, and comparison, with both Democrats and Republicans scoring less than 0.25 standard deviations away from the mean baseline established by all ten speeches. The same cannot be said of techniques of repetition, however. Republicans consistently score high positive z-scores in all techniques of repetition, including +0.36 for anaphora, +0.33 for epistrophe, +0.51 for complexio, and +0.18 for traductio. This indicates that Republicans, compared to their Democrat peers, highly favor repetition of words, phrases, and other elements as a source of style.

6c. Inaugural Speeches by Age Group

The average President age at the time of giving his inaugural speech is 57, with a standard deviation of 8 years. Thus, three age groups exist among the ten Presidents considered in this research: those who were one or more standard deviations younger than the mean age (William Clinton and John Kennedy), those who were one or more standard deviations older than the mean age (George Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Harry Truman), and those who were within one standard deviation of the mean (George W. Bush, Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, and Dwight Eisenhower). When grouped by age and compared, even more striking differences appear than when the Presidents are compared by political affiliation.

In many ways, the Presidents younger than one standard deviation can be said to be more poetic in their speechwriting, making much more frequent use of the techniques of arrangement, antithesis, and comparison. Specifically, younger age-group Presidents make frequent use of anastrophe (z-score +0.96), periodos (z-score +1.36), tricolon (z-score +1.17), antithesis (z-score +1.02), AB/BA antithesis (z-score +0.83), oxymoron (z-score +0.77), metaphor (z-score +1.28), metonymy (z-score +0.71), and synecdoche (z-score +0.52). The only noticeably negative z-scores in the young age-group belong to three of the four techniques of arrangement, namely anaphora (z-score -0.20), epistrophe (z-score -0.84), and complexio (z-score -0.62).

Presidents in the older age group focus their stylistic variations on techniques of repetition, including anaphora (z-score +0.23), complexio (z-score +0.59), and traductio (z-score +0.35). Compared to their peers, the older age-group Presidents also show a preference towards the comparative technique of simile (z-score +0.38) and the arrangement technique of klimax (z-score +0.88). However, that except for the high scores in klimax and complexio, none of the older age-group z-scores are above +0.38, indicating a much more conservative (in relation to the mean) style. Negative z-scores indicative of avoiding particular techniques include alliteration (z-score -0.51), antithesis (z-score -1.18), and most of the techniques of arrangement, namely Anastrophe (z-score -0.62), Periodos (z-score -0.99), Parallelism (z-score -0.83), Tricolon (z-score -0.89), Asyndeton (z-score -0.63), and Polysyndeton (z-score -0.84).

Middle age-group Presidents have few high positive or low negative z-scores, which indicates an overall tendency to stay close to the mean usage rates set by all ten speeches. Noticeably positive scores include +0.28 in alliteration, +0.85 in polysyndeton, and +0.49 in epistrophe. (Note, however, that much of the middle age-group's high z-score in alliteration may be due to President George W. Bush's extremely high use of the technique.) Particularly low negative scores include -0.44 in traductio, -0.67 in oxymoron, -0.85 in klimax, -0.84 in metaphor, and -0.67 in metonymy.

When compared and contrasted, the three age groupings do show distinct differences in style. Younger Presidents show strong tendencies to use several techniques, while older Presidents show strong tendencies to avoid several techniques. Middle age-group Presidents tend to avoid certain techniques in much the same way as their older peers, although no definable pattern is evident.

7. Conclusion

The first stage of this research set out to measure and analyze the use of the twenty-one rhetorical techniques in first- or single-term inaugural addresses by the ten Presidents since the advent of televised Presidential inaugural speeches. Although no consistent pattern was found across all ten speeches, three distinct rhetorical styles became statistically evident—low, middle, and high—based on raw relative frequency-of-use totals for each President's inaugural address. It is also quite clear that when Presidents are separated into groups based on their political affiliation or relative ages, distinct patterns of stylistic technique use become evident. Younger Presidents tend towards poetic techniques, older Presidents towards repetition, klimax, and simile, while those in-between prefer the strong but conservative repetition of conjunctions (polysyndeton) and like endings (epistrophe). While not as clear as the age-group differences, political affiliation differences do show consistently throughout all twenty-one techniques, especially in the strong Democrat preference for, and equally strong Republican avoidance of, periodos.

8. Future Research

Several strands of future research are implied by the measurements and analysis above. First and foremost, parallel studies must be conducted using the same materials and multiple readers, both to verify the measurements taken from the ten speeches and to test the validity of the definitions used in this research. Second, statistical significance tests must be undertaken, both of the measurements in this research paper and of any later measurements made to verify the current data, to confirm that the variations in stylistic techniques uncovered by this research are indeed statistically significant or simply the results of chance. Third, once the methods and measurements of this paper are verified, this research can and should be expanded. One path to follow would be to include similar speeches given by the Presidents, such as the yearly State of The Union Addresses; another would be to make similar measurements of pre-television speeches to test for differences between contemporary and pre-contemporary rhetorical styles. Finally, a future paper could attempt to measure the quality of the various styles discussed above, using President approval ratings and similar data.

(1) Second-term inaugural speeches are not included in this research paper because only five of the ten Presidents considered have served second terms and thus delivered second-term inaugural speeches. Considering two speeches by the same President--who may have a preference or dislike for particular techniques--may skew the statistical analysis of similarities and differences between speeches. Additionally, second-term inaugural addresses are qualitatively different from first-term inaugural speeches--not only are the historical circumstances different (the President in question has already served four years as President, and thus must address the past four years of his Presidency as much as discuss the next four years), but the rhetorical situations are different (since Amendment XXII of the Constitution of the United States does not allow more than two Presidential terms, a President's second inaugural is also always his final inaugural; without a possibility of reelection after his second term, the President does not have to consider the prospect of reelection in his second inaugural the way he must in his first). Future research will evaluate these potential differences between first-term and second-term inaugural speeches, both before and after the ratification of Amendment XXII.

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The Avalon Project: The Inaugural Addresses of the Presidents, The Avalon Project at Yale Law School, The Lillian Goldman Law Library in Memory of Sol Goldman, 1996-2003 <http://www.yale.edu/lawweb/avalon/presiden/inaug/inaug.htm>.

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Clinton, William. First Inaugural Address of William J. Clinton. 1993

Bush, George. Inaugural Address of George Bush. 1989

Reagan, Ronald. First Inaugural Address of Ronald Reagan. 1981

Carter, Jimmy. Inaugural Address of Jimmy Carter. 1977

Nixon, Richard. First Inaugural Address of Richard M. Nixon. 1969

Johnson, Lyndon. Inaugural Address of Lyndon B. Johnson. 1965

Kennedy, John. Inaugural Address of John F. Kennedy. 1961

Eisenhower, Dwight. First Inaugural Address of Dwight D. Eisenhower. 1953

Truman, Harry. Inaugural Address of Harry S. Truman. 1949